• Menu
  • Skip to left header navigation
  • Skip to right header navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar

Before Header

  • Bluesky
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • TikTok
  • Twitter
  • YouTube

Buzz

Journalism & News from Bournemouth University

  • News
    • Campus
    • Local
    • National
    • World
    • Entertainment
    • Lifestyle
    • Technology
    • Sustainability
  • Sport
    • AFC Bournemouth
    • Boxing
    • Cricket
    • Formula 1
    • Golf
    • Local Football
    • Men’s Football
    • Opinion & Analysis
    • Rugby League
    • Rugby Union
    • Tennis
  • Watch
    • Interactive
      • 2022 iDocs
      • 2021 iDocs
      • 2020 iDocs
      • 2019 iDocs
      • 2018 iDocs
      • 2017 iDocs
      • 2016 iDocs
      • 2015 iDocs
    • Documentary
      • 2018 Docs
      • 2017 Docs
      • 2016 Docs
      • 2015 Docs
      • 2014 Docs
  • Search
  • Elections
    • US2024
    • UK2019
    • US2016
    • UK2015
    • US2012
  • About
    • Authors
    • Archive
  • Sites
    • The Breaker
    • The Rock
  • News
    • Campus
    • Local
    • National
    • World
    • Entertainment
    • Lifestyle
    • Technology
    • Sustainability
  • Sport
    • AFC Bournemouth
    • Boxing
    • Cricket
    • Formula 1
    • Golf
    • Local Football
    • Men’s Football
    • Opinion & Analysis
    • Rugby League
    • Rugby Union
    • Tennis
  • Watch
    • Interactive
      • 2022 iDocs
      • 2021 iDocs
      • 2020 iDocs
      • 2019 iDocs
      • 2018 iDocs
      • 2017 iDocs
      • 2016 iDocs
      • 2015 iDocs
    • Documentary
      • 2018 Docs
      • 2017 Docs
      • 2016 Docs
      • 2015 Docs
      • 2014 Docs
  • Elections
    • US2012
    • US2016
    • UK2015
    • UK2019
  • About
    • Authors
    • Archive
  • Sites
    • The Breaker
    • The Rock

Mobile Menu

  • Bluesky
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • TikTok
  • Twitter
  • YouTube

How accurate are the exit polls?

December 13, 2019 //  by Elliott Murray//  Leave a Comment

Colourised Voting Box

The 2019 exit polls have predicted that the Conservative party are going to be win the General Election by 86 seats. However, these are only predictions. BUzz news reporter Elliot Cooper took a look at the history of the accuracy of exit polls in past elections.

While there is some disagreement with the number of people that are included in the poll, some sources only putting this at around 20,000 voters in a selection of districts, they have  only been wrong within a small margin in recent elections.

Going back to the 1970s and the first commission of these exit polls they remained accurate right up until the  1990s, they have started to lose credibility.

In 1992 the polls predicted a hung Parliament but were wrong with a Conservative majority being rewarded.

The 2001 poll did not see these inaccuracies improve. It wasn’t until 2005 and 2010 that they started getting back on track again, predicting the results bang on.

In 2015 there were  some inaccuracies creep back in to the predictions with both the BBC and ITV being wrong by 22 seats . 

2017 saw an improvement on the accuracy of the results with the polls only being off by four votes.

If the trend of lowering inaccuracies continue with these polls there might be some marginal inaccuracies with tonight’s exit polls, which has predicted a 86 vote conservative win. 





About Elliott Murray

View all posts by Elliott Murray

Category: Election NewsTag: accuracy, exit polls

Previous Post: «Colourised Voting Box Top Five Swing Seats 2019
Next Post: Complete history of the Christchurch constituency Christchurch Dorset high house prices»

Reader Interactions

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Site Footer

  • Login
  • Privacy Policy
  • User Guides
  • Writer’s Guide

Copyright © 2025 Buzz · All Rights Reserved · Powered by Mai Theme

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with it.Ok